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Introduction to Time Series Data and Serial Correlation (SW Section 14.2) First, some notation and terminology. Notation for time series data Y t = value of Y in period t. Data set: Y 1,…,Y T = T observations on the time series random variable Y We consider only consecutive, evenly-spaced observations (for example, monthly, 1960 to 1999, no. 1.1. Examples of Time Series 1 1.2. Objectives of Time Series Analysis 6 1.3. Some Simple Time Series Models 7 1.3.1. Some Zero-Mean Models 8 1.3.2. Models with Trend and Seasonality 9 1.3.3. A General Approach to Time Series Modeling 14 1.4. Stationary Models and the Autocorrelation Function 15 1.4.1. The Sample Autocorrelation Function 18 1.4.2.

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